Аннотация: MMMDLXXVI. A plan (based on radio-information) to overcome the abnormal volatility of the Russian Ruble exchange rate. A joking financial and economic sketch. - November 29, 2024.
A plan (based on radio-information) to overcome the abnormal volatility of the Russian Ruble exchange rate. A joking financial and economic sketch.
The abnormal volatility of the ruble exchange rate worries me - as well as many other citizens of the Russian Federation.
Official statements are being made (by officials of various levels) - on this issue. In part, these assurances reassure me. But I am a little worried about the vagueness of these statements, as well as the lack of a clear plan of actions.
Please recall Boris Yeltsin's official statement before the default: the general meaning of the question addressed to him was: "will there be problems?". The answer (a general meaning): "there won't be any problems." A few days later, the ruble collapsed, but that's not the point: we can see the clarity and concreteness of Yeltsin's answer.
("And here's what Yeltsin said on August 14, 1998 about a possible default, speaking to journalists in Novgorod: "There will be no devaluation, firmly and clearly.").
("There will be no devaluation. I declare this firmly and clearly. And it's not just that I'm making it up or fantasizing or I wouldn't want to, it's all calculated. It is every day that work and control are carried out ..."").
Due to the lack of clarity and concreteness, due to the vagueness of modern soothing statements, due to the lack of a clear plan of actions (brought to the bulk of the population), I began to wonder: what is necessary to do?
Since I am not an official (for about ten years, - if not twenty, - I have not received even a one kopeck from the Russian Federation, only paid taxes and other mandatory payments), so I do not have the information that competent officials possess, thus I am guided by the information which I hear on the radio.
These are the main points on which I base my author's actions plan (of course, there may be inaccuracies arising from the inaccuracy of the statements of radio-speakers (radio-actors) and the inaccuracy of the perception of information by the radio listener, that is, by me):
1) The increase of discount rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation contributes to an increase in deposit rates in banks, therefore, part of the excess money supply is sent to banks, and this money (in deposits) decrease the "pressure" of consumer demand.
2) The money supply (the total volume of money) has roughly doubled since 2022.
3) Now there are difficulties with the receipt of currency into the Russian Federation.
4) It is desirable to increase a taxes collection.
Accordingly, here is my author's plan of actions:
A) To increase the discount rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation three times;
B) To reduce the money supply (the total volume of money) by three times,
C) To ensure a threefold increase in the volume of currency entering the Russian Federation.
D) To increase tax collection three times.
In my opinion, all these measures - if they will be taken before December 31, 2024 - will ensure a sharp decrease in the volatility of the ruble exchange rate. It is very possible that by January 15, 2025, the ruble exchange rate will be approximately 50-80 rubles per 1 US dollar.
Moreover, by April 1, 2025, the inflation rate will likely to be 4 percent.
I hope that some "rough edges" of the conceptual apparatus will not serve as an obstacle to the effective use as of the details of my plan, so of my general approach (the transition from soothing general statements to a clear plan of actions).
November 29, 2024 23:33
Translation from Russian into English: November 30, 2024 01:06
Владимир Владимирович Залесский " План преодоления аномальной волатильности курса рубля (на основании радио-информации). Шуточный финансово-экономический очерк ".
{ 3605. План преодоления аномальной волатильности курса рубля (на основании радио-информации). Шуточный финансово-экономический очерк. - 29 ноября 2024 г.
MMMDLXXVI. A plan (based on radio-information) to overcome the abnormal volatility of the Russian Ruble exchange rate. A joking financial and economic sketch. - November 29, 2024.
Vladimir Zalessky Internet-bibliotheca. Интернет-библиотека Владимира Залесского. }