Аннотация: The cyclical nature of the Europeanization of the USSR (and the post-USSR) and the Lukashenko's regime. A historical essay.
The cyclical nature of the Europeanization of the USSR (and the post-USSR) and the Lukashenko's regime. A historical essay.
Russia (until 1917) was one of the countries of the Western World.
Lenin tried to announce the Russia's withdrawal from the Western World.
However, his attempt and his efforts were not long. The effective cooperation between the USSR and the Western World began very soon (de facto and de jure).
Already in the 30s of the 20th century, the reintegration of the USSR into the Western World began.
The foreign policy events that followed the defeat of Japan in 1945, the non-participation of the USSR in the signing of a peace treaty with Japan, launched the period of confrontation between the USSR and the Western World.
Khrushchov made visits to the United States. Relations between Khrushchov and US President Eisenhower were improving.
This stage of Europeanization ended with the USSR's attempt to deploy missiles in Cuba.
Next came Brezhnev. Weak attempt at Europeanization in the form of "detente" and "convergence". This stage ended with the introduction of Soviet troops into Afghanistan.
Another attempt at Europeanization - by efforts of Mikhail Gorbachev.
Several western republics of the USSR declared their independence and began to integrate into the Western World at different rates.
The democratic regime in Belarus was replaced by the Lukashenko's regime. For some time in his orchestra, the main parts were played by harpsichords, which showed themselves in Afghanistan.
However, Belarus - after 1991 - didn't remain outside the process of Europeanization. It wasn't possible.
Lukashenko's regime has chosen the most complicated path. The population of the former USSR has the most controversial memories of the stage of Europeanization, which took place in the 30s - 50s of the 20th century.
If we will put the word 'forced' in the brackets and will leave only the word 'Europeanization', then the situation will not look so bad.
A sharp rise in the cultural and educational level of the population, the formation of a technical intelligentsia on the principles of Gleb Krzhizhanovsky, economic successes, space exploration, social guarantees, which have become the subject of the most intense interest and study on the part of Western social democracy ...
However, reading the "Archipelago" and other works of this direction is forcing to return the word "forced" back from brackets and to find, to see a public in a contradictory emotional state.
At some point, the readers of "Archipelago" are finishinf a reading, they are directing their eyes onto their own diplomas of higher education, documents for the received apartments and garden plots (summer cottages), onto own employment record books. After reading these documents, citizens are acquiring a new emotions.
In general, the Lukashenko's regime decided to carry out "Europeanization in reverse". If there is a craving of citizens for a social guarantees and economic successes of the USSR, then why not entice the public with the prospect of returning to the USSR?
This prospect looked a little strange - with the participation of a well-known politician, - but he was known for his addiction to alcohol, and there were faint hopes that with such a brave leader like Lukashenko, no alcohol-inclined individuals could interfere with the restoration of the USSR (through the Union State).
At some point, the alcohol lover left the historical scene.
But by this time Lukashenko realized that the Union State is not only an attractive, popular historical idea. The Union State is also an opportunity for access to Russia's raw material pie. Belarus is a relatively small country; a moderate portions of the raw material pie are enough for her.
This type of Europeanization lasted about 30 years. It suited a certain part of the population of Belarus.
But neighboring countries were a problem. All these countries - those that left the USSR - seemed to have to self-destruct under the influence of an economic catastrophe.
But, oddly enough, although without outstanding economic success, these countries took such positions that they began to look attractive to the inhabitants of Belarus.
The achievements and prospects of the Lukashenko's regime looked unconvincing for the majority of the population of Belarus.
Finally, in Belarus the August 2020 presidential election came, which demonstrated the powerful, but idologically, logically unformed, will of the Belarusian people for a real Europeanization.
Lukashenko put his musical instruments into action, even pulled Afghan harpsichords out of a closet, and played hymns to his almost 30-year rule.
"It's a correct singing - it will be difficult without a share of the Russial raw material pie!"
The ideological leaders of the people of Belarus are people who speak about Lukashenko's departure ('we are not against receiving economic preferences from Russia'), about the correct vote count in the 'new' elections, or even remember Lukashenko's rule with a kind word (noticeably the number of European visas that Belarusians received during the rule of Lukashenko increased).
Perhaps any model of Europeanization is good for Belarus - both the Ukrainian type and the Estonian type, and a some other types.
In the historical fog - in addition - the contours of the common economic space (Velikolithuanian, East-Republican) - with revenues from transcontinental transport routes and logistics centers, with the preservation of high-tech industries and scientific and technical directions of high level - are vaguely visible.
But where is the place for these ideas (about the Velikolithuanian, East-Republican economic space, about the movement along the Estonian, Ukrainian or other models) - if Lukashenko's music is opposed by the idea of the correct vote count in the 'new' elections (with Lukashenko's natural departure?), a naive pride in the successes achieved under Lukashenko's leadership?
In addition to the "correct" "new" elections, there is also a plan to receive another loan (about $ 5 billion). It is clear that there will be no way to return the loan, and the accelerated privatization of the main enterprises will follow.
In the historical memory of the peoples of the Russian Empire and Europe remained: (1) an accelerated march to Europe - of some Europeans who lived in Moscow - after (along with) the retreat of Napoleon's army in 1812 and (2) "Berezina" ...
Lukashenko's regime (has he ever spoken out against "new" elections?) - supports "new" elections ...
'Another question is when to hold them, how to prepare for them ... In general, there is no difference between us ... We all support the idea of 'new' elections ... In addition, I have the protocol of the election commission, and you do not have such a protocol (but you have records in Interpol documents), and you do not even verbally declare your victory in the 2020 elections ... "
The Lukashenko's regime is groping for new opportunities - what can cooperation with China, for example, give?
Can the development of cooperation with China be called a new variant of Europeanization? It's necessary to think about this ...
So, we introduce such concepts as "Europeanization" ("forced Europeanization") and "cyclical Europeanization" ("the cyclical nature of the Europeanization").
The Europeanization is a cyclical process...
January 28, 2021 10:15
Translation from Russian into English: January 28, 2021 18:03.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский 'Цикличность европеизации СССР (и пост-СССР) и режим Лукашенко. Исторический очерк'.