Аннотация: The Monologue about the possible scenario of events in Venezuela
The Monologue about the possible scenario of events in Venezuela
If to adhere to the concept of "sharing" ("division") of "raw materials pie", then it is possible to come to some assumptions of the possible scenario of events in Venezuela.
The society of "raw materials pie" in itself has no noticeable efficiency.
Part of people become distribution algorithm elements of "raw materials pie". "Embedding in such algorithm" in itself reduces their creative potential.
It is possible to speak about shortcomings of such society in more detail, but the facts, historical experience confirm a simple conclusion - the society of "raw materials pie" is not effective.
At coincidence of certain circumstances the number people dissatisfied with similar society becomes approximately equal to number of his supporters.
Perhaps this point was revealed at the time of the election of the opposition Parliament of Venezuela (2015). (Wikipedia: "The final results were announced by the national electoral Council on 8 December [2015], more than two days after the elections. According to them, the [opposition] bloc "round table of democratic unity" won 112 seats, including three seats allocated to indigenous peoples and occupied by supporters of the opposition, and the Pro - presidential bloc "great Patriotic pole of Simon Bolivar" (ERU + allies) - 55 mandates."
By enough skillful maneuvers owners of a brand of legitimacy managed to push aside oppositional parliament from the power.
However, in the life of the country, it seems, no positive changes have occurred. Perhaps, negative trends proceeded. It is quite natural to assume that the number of supporters of owners of "a legality brand" was reduced, and the number of his opponents - increased.
At last, in January, 2019 the chairman of oppositional parliament declared himself the interim president of Venezuela.
After the moment of election of oppositional parliament owners of "a legitimacy brand" did not begin to share "a substance of a power" - in the conditions of separation of powers.
Now the situation became aggravated. Redistribution of "substance of the power" in January, 2019 happened besides standard, habitual constitutional procedures - in extreme conditions.
Regardless of which way (violent or relatively peaceful) will go further events, with the owner of the brand of legitimacy are the results of (many) years of stay in power. If the information about mass emigration is true, it is clear that life in the country is becoming increasingly unbearable for a large part of the population.
Behind the new carrier of "a legitimacy brand" there are no achieved results, but there are hopes and promises. Hopes and promises - they are of lightweight. But, perhaps, with him there are prospects (the prospects for establishing a "normal" life). Prospects - it is essential.
If to accept attention the identity of the chairman of the parliament of Venezuela who declared himself "the interim president" (specification of the name of a position is possible), mass character of its support, then not armed way of development of the situation is very probable, and - peace.
Perhaps, the way of development of the situation will remind events in Armenia [on 9 December 2018] when the ruling party considered for itself expedient to allow to the power of the oppositional politician for holding early [snap] elections.
What results of early elections can be? And in general, whether they [early elections] will take place?.
For some reason the intuitive confidence says: "Yes! early [snap] elections Will take place!" The question, certainly in that is when? And after what else events?
What will be early elections? What will be after the early elections? - It is another story.
Whether that scenario which we saw in Armenia will repeat, - when "ruling party" did not go into parliament of new structure? Probability of such scenario, certainly is less, than the probability of early elections ...
Naturally, the fact that Armenia is a parliamentary Republic and Venezuela is a presidential Republic cannot but affect the organization and holding of early elections.
January 24, 2019 16:38
Translation from Russian into English: January 24, 2019 17:22.
Владимир Владимирович Залесский "Монолог о возможном сценарии событий в Венесуэле".